´Future in the Alps´ is dealing with topics and questions, which will be relevant for the Alps in the next 10-20 years. The answers to the six key questions of the project should help stakeholders, regional actors and decision makers to be better prepared to meet the challenges of the future challenges which become already apparent today.
As ´Future in the Alps´ does not compile own prognoses and forecasts, the project relies two documents about future Alpine develoment, which have been elaborated recently within the REGALP project, which has been carried out under the 5^th EU Framework Programme.

(1) The REGALP Macro-Trend Reader includes general prognoses and foresights related to the following topics and sectors on a macro (=european) level:

• Population and demography
• Environment and climate change
• Economic development
• Technical change and ´new economy´
• Alpine-resource-based goods and services
• Transport infrastructure and mobility

The trends described in this reader can be considered as relevant for the development of the Alps in the next 10-20 years.

Download the Macro-Trend Reader (pdf, 16 mb)

(2)  Future scenarios for the Alps in the year 2020
Based on the Macrotrends-Reader two scenarios for the future situation of the Alps have been described. They were called:

•  ´Inertial Scenario´, where the researchers estimated that spatial polarisation in the Alps will increase and public policies will not be able or willing to go against this development.

• ´Towards Sustainability Scenario´: in this scenario, the researchers assumed that public policies will be able to slightly attenuate polarisation in the Alps and to better meet the aims of sustainable development.

• prospering urban and centralised regions
• periurban regions with a high rate of out-commuters
• tourism-dominated regions
• prospering and stable rural areas
• declining peripheral regions

Each of these spatial development types has been described with regard to the situation in the year 2020 based on about 45 mostly qualitative criteria.

These two scenarios for the different alpine regions in the year 2020 have been used as a framework for the investigation of the knowledge base and good practice examples with regard to the 6 project questions.

Download the future scenarios (pdf, 1,5 mb)